The federal government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET on October 1, after Congress was unable to reach a funding agreement in time. While certain federal services will be temporarily paused, history shows markets typically look through brief shutdowns, focusing instead on economic and earnings trends.

Q3 markets were broadly positive. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose over 5%, and the S&P 500 Index advanced more than 7% for the quarter. A key driver of this strength has been steadily rising corporate earnings forecasts, which signal continued resilience in both consumer and business activity. The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut added support, reinforcing expectations for a gradual easing cycle ahead.

Looking ahead, we continue to favor diversified positioning, including allocations to commodities such as gold and international markets, where valuations and policy conditions in some regions remain compelling relative to the U.S. While headlines around fiscal policy may create temporary noise, long-term fundamentals, particularly earnings growth and broader global participation, remain supportive, however we are monitoring many data points and adjusting accordingly.